Second Round for Labour and Reform UK as they Advance to the final count on Manchester Mayor election
No candidate secured more than 50% of first-preference votes in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, forcing a second-round runoff between Labour’s Bev Craig and Reform UK’s Sian Astley.
Counting officials confirmed the result on Friday afternoon (31 July 2026), eliminating the Green Party, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Restore Britain and Independent candidates. Second-preference votes from those eliminated ballots are now being redistributed under the supplementary vote system to decide the winner.
The by-election, held on 30 July, is the largest in British history, covering an electorate of more than 2.14 million people across the ten boroughs of Greater Manchester. Turnout reached only 25.14% — a sharp drop of nearly seven percentage points from the previous mayoral contest.
Why the contest happened
The vacancy arose after Andy Burnham, the popular Labour mayor since 2017, won the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in June 2026. Rules governing combined-authority mayors who also hold police and crime commissioner powers required him to step down immediately. Acting mayor Paul Dennett chose not to stand, clearing the way for a full contest to fill the role until the next scheduled election in 2028.
The candidates in the final
Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council and a close ally of Burnham, entered the race as the clear favourite. Pre-election polls consistently placed her first on first preferences (typically 38–41%) and projected her to win the second round comfortably, often by margins of 62–65% to 35–38%.
Sian Astley, Reform UK’s candidate, a landlord and businesswoman, emerged as the main challenger. Polling showed her consolidating support that once went to Conservatives and other right-leaning options, finishing second in most surveys. Her presence in the final two marks another strong performance for Reform UK in a traditional Labour heartland.
How the system works
Voters ranked a first and second preference. With no candidate clearing the 50% threshold on first preferences, all but the top two were eliminated. Second-preference votes from the eliminated candidates are now transferred to Craig or Astley. The candidate with the higher total after transfers will become mayor.
Officials from Greater Manchester Elects announced a short pause before the second-round count began. Results are expected later on Friday evening.
Wider context
The contest has been watched closely as a test of Reform UK’s growing appeal in the North and of Labour’s ability to hold its urban strongholds after recent local election setbacks. Low turnout has already drawn comment, with some observers noting that whichever candidate wins will do so with a relatively modest mandate.
For now, the race for one of England’s most powerful regional mayoral positions remains open between Labour continuity and Reform’s challenge. The second-round result will determine who succeeds Andy Burnham and shapes transport, housing, skills and policing policy across Greater Manchester until 2028.
